Monday, November 17, 2008

Sharp mind at work!

Financial Crisis, Credit Crunch, Global Economic Turmoil, Financial Tsunami, Market Meltdown are terms that have become so clichéd nowadays that even I can write a whole page of crap on any of these and finally end up with the universal remedy that these are short term issues that will have a medium term impact, but will eventually be sorted out in the long term! None is financially ignorant today, even college professors (lighter sense please, no offense intended!)

How easy is it to make mockery of a system that has made you lose half your savings? It isn’t as simple, but then, forget it for a moment and look at the rosier half: There are millions of others who have invested much more and lost all! Isn’t that something of a consolation? :) No..Before you think so..I clarify..Am not psychologically affected or a misanthrope. Just that I am drowned and can’t see things clearly…

So here begins my journey to disprove one of market’s celebrated quotes:
“Buy Low; Sell High” -> 1

Does this make sense?

If you buy the scrip “Low”, you only have the option of selling the same unless; the idea here is to short-sell the scrip “High”. So if everybody is to buy “Low”, who will sell it? And if everyone is to short-sell “High”, how is it feasible to short-cover it when nobody is going to buy? Ha…This statement is just not right, if interpreted this way! There is something that isn’t all too obvious and has been left to be uncovered by us (or is it ME??!!).

So the logical conclusion here is, Low is High. Only then can I attempt to move ahead with this marathon effort of proving something so profound wrong.

If Low is High, then there has to be a time delay between Buying and Selling, lest there isn’t a profit by doing both at the same price!

Now, this statement can be interpreted in one of the following ways, assuming these were the meanings implied by the intelligent author of statement 1:
Buy Low Low; Sell High High -> 2
Buy Low High; Sell High Low -> 3

We try to prove Statement 1 by proving either 2 or 3

Consider Statement 2:
Applying fundamental Mathematics, this can be minimized to
Buy power(Low,2); Sell power(High,2)
Substituting
X = power(Low,2)
Y = power(High,2)

We get
Buy X; Sell Y where X =Y
This leads us again to a statement of the form 1! So there isn’t much of a case in trying to prove this statement beyond this point.

We are left with one alternative now: Statement 3

Buy Low High; Sell High Low

Here again Low High = High Low.

So this get reduced to a statement of the form

Buy A Sell A
Statement 1 again!

No matter how I attempt to prove this, I am just not able to go beyond statement 1 and prove it. Is it that, the statement has been taken to be proven by repetition rather than a solid backing?

Hehehe.. Can I get any worse than this? I write this as I am finding ways of declaring Chapter 11 in India!!

1 comment:

Ram said...

wikipedia helped me in finding what is Chapter 11. what made me go to wikipedia? -- this blog of yours.

butterfly effect...